Venture-Backed Liquidity Continues to Plunge
Bill Warner Thursday, July 02, 2009
Venture-backed liquidity continues its plunge that started in 1Q08. It’s now down to $2.8 billion, a 57% drop since this time last year, and down from $18.4 billion in 4Q07. The number of venture-backed IPO transactions continues to be anemic with three so far this year, versus seven for all of last year. M&A is also down to 67 deals totaling $2.6 billion, down from $16.2 billion in 4Q07 and a drop of 23 percent since last quarter. See all the data at VentureSource.
Venture’s life blood continuing to be squeezed
As you know, these two types of transactions are the life blood of liquidity for venture capital firms. With so few transactions, venture firms are feeling the pain with no viable way to exit from their portfolio companies. Their entire business model is built with the assumption that there will be a sizable exit. Of course, very few of their investments achieve this goal, but they are supposed to more than offset the lower performance or losses experienced in the rest of their portfolio. With M&A’s and IPO’s continuing their decline, venture capital firms are faced with not being able to meet their commitments to their limited partners.
The fallout continues
Unfortunately, there are also an increasing number of venture capital firms backing away from the market in the face of these realities. You have read about the optimism of the National Venture Capital Association’s initiatives to find new venture capital business models and several venture capital firms experimenting with new markets as well as smaller investments with small expectations for returns. These are far too late for many firms, especially those that need to raise new funds. We will continue to see the fallout through the remainder of the year.
What is the future of venture capital
With the continued anti-business and anti-venture capital regulation by the federal government, it is hard to imagine how the current venture capital market will survive. We are more likely to see a continued weeding out of the weakest firms as others redefine themselves with business models that are much more modest with respect to amount invested per company, expected returns and time to exit. Models like this are being tried as some firms actually are dipping down to take on some pure start-ups. Others are playing in the debt markets which would be an entirely different model for achieving returns to their limited partners.
What about entrepreneurs
As for entrepreneurs, you have to analyze the viability of any venture firm that you approach by taking a hard look at the value of their current portfolio and where they stand with their current fund. You want to determine if they are going to be able to be with you in subsequent rounds and whether or not their key personnel will be there to assist you. A lot of hard questions need to be asked about their business model so that you can satisfy yourself that they will be a long lasting partner or not.
They will certainly offer low valuations and strict terms, but the negotiation is a two way street. Make sure they are really going to be worth what they claim to be.
Permalink
Venture Capital Firms Chase New IPO’s
Bill Warner Friday, June 19, 2009
We all know that the IPO market for venture-backed companies has pretty much disappeared, substantially destroying their business model that requires high value exits via an IPO. Dixon Doll, in his interview with the Wall Street Journal gives us an update on the reshaping of the venture capital industry. Doll is a seasoned business consultant, a leading venture capitalist and the outgoing Chairman of the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).
NVCA’s “Four-Pillar Plan”
The NVCA’s Four-Pillar Plan is targeted at restoring the venture-backed IPO market, and it takes unprecedented cooperation between the private sector and the government’s taxation and regulatory policies. Given the slap that the venture capital world just took in the SBIR renewal bill, that cooperation is not evident.
The NVCA’s direction is to convince venture capital firms to modify their financial models and business practices to focus on small-cap IPO’s, moving away from blockbuster winners. Another bubble is bursting. This will require substantial reshaping of the way venture capital firms structure their deals and the transition will take five to seven years to complete. But, given the state of the IPO market, this makes sense.
This means that venture capital firms will have to go after more deals, with less money per deal, driving for quicker exits, and culminating in smaller IPO’s. This opens up the venture-backed IPO market to a whole new set of investment banking firms that will be able to service this opportunity. It won’t be just the big firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
The task ahead
Doll points out that this is going to be a painful transition. Some venture firms won’t make it. It will require a massive education initiative to explain how this can work. This education will have to include entrepreneurs, venture capital firms and investments banks who currently don’t view that they have an IPO market available to them.
There is considerable skepticism throughout the industry. Even if the NVCA pulls off this first pillar, the government regulatory and taxation policies will represent another giant hurdle to jump over. Doll has always been a positive and aggressive thinker. If anyone can make this change happen, he can.
Permalink
Venture Capital Snubbed By SBIR Bill
Bill Warner Thursday, June 18, 2009
The Senate committee unanimously passed the bill to renew the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program with only partial support for venture backed company eligibility, allowing them to have access to 18 percent of the Department of Health and Human Services and 8 percent of all other agencies. Read the details in the Wall Street Journal.
The problem with venture capital backed companies
This debate has gone on for years and comes down to two opposing views. The first is those that think that grant funding is an integral part of a company’s financing strategy and that there should be no restrictions on the amount of private equity money invested in the company. The other view is that grant financing should be devoted to private companies that are not substantially owned by venture capital firms.
The debate continues
This is not the last we will hear about this debate. The National Venture Capital Association and the Angel Capital Association are strong advocates for lifting the restrictions on venture capital backed companies. In any economy, it seems like a good idea to strengthen the financing capability of entrepreneurial businesses.
Permalink
Approaching Angel Investors
Bill Warner Friday, June 12, 2009
You only get one chance for success when approaching angel investors. You need to make the most of it by being very well prepared. Here’s some really solid advice from Jim Casparie in his Forbes article. Take a look at Paladin’s suggestions as well.
Like the Boy Scouts, “Be Prepared”
You would never think of approaching a potential customer or alliance partner without being well prepared. You have a purpose, an agenda of what to talk about, a desired outcome and a negotiating position. It takes more than a little work to get ready for such a meeting. Well, it’s the same for getting ready for angel investors. Being prepared includes:
- A complete business plan including financials
- Knowing all about the angel investor group, including their business interests
- Referral by an influential business person
- A concise business plan presentation that is customized to the angels group’s interest.
- Practice, practice, practice; especially answers to anticipated questions
Attitude and mindset matter a lot
No matter how good your business may look to investors, they are really investing in the entrepreneur. Investors know that passion makes the difference. So, let it show in a balanced and business-like way. Angels have to have confidence in the entrepreneur or they won’t invest.
Permalink
Practice Your Elevator Pitch
Bill Warner Thursday, June 11, 2009
I can’t tell you how many entrepreneurs have told me that they cannot possibly explain their business in 45 seconds. I get the typical responses. It’s far too complex a business model. It’s hard to explain the technology. The market is too broad to get it across that quickly. My marketing and sales plan is difficult to understand. The list goes on.
Why even try
The purpose of such a presentation is simple. You will run into many situations in both your business and your social life where you have to give a brief answer to the question, “what business are you in?” This could come from people at trade show events, passengers on airplanes, people at parties, associates in business meetings, etc. Sometimes, the perso
Permalink
Cleantech the Target of Venture Capital Firms
Bill Warner Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Talk about major shifts in investor interest, cleantech is getting an incredible amount of attention from global venture capital firms according to the 2009 Global Trends in Venture Capital Report by Deloitte. They are perhaps hoping for attractive incentives from government initiatives as global warming programs kick in throughout the world.
Cleantech is hot
Just five years ago this annual survey indicated some interest in clean technologies and the life sciences. This year, regardless of fund size, there is tremendous interest from VCs in both of these sectors, especially clean technologies, where more than six out of 10 respondents anticipate their investment levels to increase and another three out of 10 will hold their investments at the same level.
Among U.S., UK and Israeli investors, about half expect to increase their investments in cleantech, while about seven out of 10 AP respondents and European respondents expect their cleantech investments to increase. Two-thirds of respondents from the Americas plan to increase their cleantech investments. This interest could be because they are seeing an increase in government/political support for cleantech and VCs are looking more to government participation in both investments and incentives.
Other investment sectors are mixed
Semiconductors and electronics could suffer a 50% reduction in investments, while medical devices may see a nice 37% increase. Telecommunications could achieve an underwhelming 15% increase and 29% decrease. Software, new media, social networking, biopharmaceuticals and consumer businesses will hover around 25% increases with similar decreases, while more than half will keep their investment levels the same.
Weathering the storm
Keep in mind that this is all in the context of a worldwide economic recession. In general, VCs are decreasing their overall investing dollars, focusing on their best companies and increasing their allocation to later-stage investments.
Lower valuations could present opportunities for VCs looking for a good deal. It is too soon to say that they will take them. Larger firms may experience a bigger slowdown than the smaller firms. Just more than half of respondents from firms managing $500 million or more are decreasing their level of investment, compared to about one in three of those managing $99 million or less.
Permalink
Asia the Darling of the Venture Capital World
Bill Warner Wednesday, June 10, 2009
According to the 2009 Global Trends in Venture Capital Report by Deloitte, Asia is becoming one of the most attractive investment geographies in the world. In addition to the already understood impacts the economy has had on the venture capital markets, this reports adds a global perspective that we don’t often see. However, these trends are not new, but are more dramatic this year.
Venture Capital Attractive in Asia
Half of all respondents expect their investment levels to increase in Asia (excluding India); while 43 percent expect to increase their investments in India over the next three years. In 2007, 41 percent of respondents indicated an interest in expanding their investment focus in Asia Pacific. About one-third expect to increase their investment levels in South America. Only 17 percent expect to increase their investments in North America, the same as 2007.
Interest is worldwide. When it comes to interest in Asia and India, UK respondents are the most enthusiastic, planning either to increase investment levels (67 percent and 58 percent, respectively) or keep them at the same levels (33 percent and 42 percent, respectively).
But, about nine out of 10 U.S. VCs are also increasing or maintaining their investments in Asia and India and about the same number of respondents from Asia Pacific have similar plans.
Declining Interest in North America
Investment interest in North America seems to be decreasing. Only 29 percent of VCs in the Americas (excluding the U.S.) plan to increase their investments in North American countries while 37 percent expect them to remain the same. Twenty-two percent of Israeli investors plan to increase their North American investments while 33 percent expect investment levels to remain the same. European investors (excluding the UK) are looking at a 16 percent increase and half expect their investments to remain the same. Only 15 percent of Asia Pacific VCs expect to increase their investment in North American countries while 40 percent expect it to remain the same. In the UK, a mere 14 percent plan on increasing their investments but 48 percent plan on keeping their levels the same. Even among
U.S. VCs, only 16 percent plan to increase their North American investing levels while 71 percent expect their investment levels to stay as they are.
This report further substantiates that the global venture capital market will continue to play an increasing role in venture capital firm investments.
Permalink
Reshaping Venture Capital
Bill Warner Wednesday, June 10, 2009
There’s a new analysis from the Kauffman Foundation that captures the situation that venture capital firms find themselves in today. It’s very informative and worth your time to read.
The usual observation is that venture capital is in trouble because of excessive and disadvantageous regulations, especially Sarbanes-Oxley, and the fact that the IPO market has dried up leaving them with no viable exits.
The core problem for venture capital firms
When you look at the total amount of money committed to venture capital hovering around $250 billion since 2000, versus the performance of venture capital hovering around zero since 2004, Kauffman concludes that this level of venture capital money is not sustainable because the market they are focused on is shrinking. It is this over commitment of venture capital money by limited partners that has led to its collapse.
Likewise, the pace of venture capital investments is currently hovering around $30 billion per year, which is 2 to 3 fold the pace of opportunities. This is arguable in that there are lots of new opportunities in biotech and cleantech that could justify this difference. Nevertheless, venture capital performance doesn’t support this pace.
What will happen to venture capital
According to Kauffman, the likely outcome is that limited partners will decrease the amount they invest in this asset class. This certainly is a trend we have been seeing for the last several months, mainly driven by the downturn of the economy which has caused them to reconsider their venture investments. This action will cause an appropriate adjustment to the overall amount of venture capital in play and the pace of investment, the result of which will be a realignment of valuations and ultimately improved performance.
Kauffman believes the adjustment could be to $12 billion per year driving a reduction in committed capital to around $100 billion.
How are venture capital firms responding
Meanwhile, venture capital firms are responding to this challenge by finding new ways of doing business in an entirely different business environment of lower investments required, lower valuations and lower returns. We have seen new forms of syndication, new alliances, and new business models all of which are responding to the downturn of the venture capital market.
Permalink
You May Want Angel Investors
Bill Warner Tuesday, June 09, 2009
I am often asked by people from all over the United States if I know any angel investors that might be interested in their company. I then ask them about their business and their readiness for angels. Unfortunately, the vast majority of them are not ready to approach angels. Their question is easy to answer, but the advice they need before they attempt it is pretty extensive.
Be ready for angels
There is a lot of work that needs to be done before you approach angels. Angel investors are reasonably sophisticated in their investment habits. You will need to be able to answer a lot of simple questions. If you mess up the answers, you will not get another chance to see them again. I have called this opportunity similar to using a one shot rifle. If you miss, you lose any chance for another shot. Take a look at some of my blog articles on this like this one on How to Find Angel Investors. Read also this article from entrepreneur.com.
Before you ask about angel investors, be prepared by:
- Preparing a well thought out business plan
- Doing some research on angel organizations to determine which ones to approach, starting with the ones in your area
- Gaining an understanding of the angel investor’s business selection process
- Finding ways to get referrals to the selected angels, which works better than cold calls
- Pulling together a well practiced investor presentation
- Practicing answering the typical angel investor questions
Make the contact with angel investors
Once you have prepared yourself, make the contact with the angel investor. Now you can answer their questions. They will soon realize that you have done your homework. With this positive reaction, you can then carry on a discussion about your business and get a commitment to a meeting to formally present it. This is the way to do it. If you come across as unprepared, unfamiliar with the process, naive about how angels operate or don’t really understand your business, you will never get to first base.
Permalink
Mentoring Entrepreneurs
Bill Warner Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Most of our communities, especially large metropolitan areas, have hundreds of seasoned business executives. It is also true that the heart of our economy is the small business owner. If you look at the statistics concerning annual business failure you will find that almost as many businesses fail each year as are started. Why?
The cause of business failure
Of course the reason businesses fail is because they run out of money to operate. What led up to that final event is:
- Lack of understanding of the market segment being pursued
- Not clearly understanding who the buyer is and how to reach them
- Flawed marketing and sales programs
- Mismanagement of customer relationships
- Insufficient financing
- Mismanagement of cash flow
- Poor management decisions on business operations
Business mentors can solve this
I assert that if more experienced business professionals would devote a little bit of their time to mentoring emerging businesses run by inexperienced entrepreneurs, the business failure rate would considerably decline.
Imagine simply taking five hours a month to help an entrepreneur. Just by being their frequent advisor would quickly identify the potential causes of failure and keep the entrepreneur on track to success. Fewer businesses would fail as a result.
This is happening throughout America. More and more organizations are getting involved in providing business advisory services. See this article from entrepreneur.com for a further perspective.
As one of the business leaders in your community, take the opportunity to contribute to the success of others. You will feel great about it and you will be helping America’s business.
