Angel Investment - Harder to Get For Entrepreneurs
Bill Warner Sunday, November 02, 2008
In the midst of this economic mess, entrepreneurs wonder what the heck just happened to their chances of getting angel financing. They have done all this research on their business, proven that their business idea has commercial merit, gotten grants to assist them in the early process of forming their business, gathered friends and family financing to get into a position to be able to launch their companies and now are faced with the end of the road before they get a chance to go to market.
Getting needed financing is always tough, but now it is going to be even tougher. Here’s what they are faced with:
- Government budgets are going to come under scrutiny which will impact the lucrative grant programs that are available today. This means that the proposals that are submitted for these programs have to be even more compelling and address a strong and urgent need.
- Foundations whose investments are also in the public markets are going to experience lower returns which will reduce the amount of money they will be able to offer to new business ventures. As with government grants, the pressure is on the entrepreneur to have a stronger and convincing story to justify the foundation grant.
- The limited partners of venture capital firms will also feel the pinch in the markets, putting further pressure on venture firms to perform. Raising further funds from limited partners for venture capital will be more difficult as well. As entrepreneurs approach venture firms, they are going to have to show greater returns over a shorter period of time, and the risks have to be well mitigated.
- Angel investors will back away from new investments, unless they see a clear winner that they will be able to get into at a very attractive price. Start-ups are going to have to show a very attractive market opportunity and accept lower pre-money valuations as they have to offer more of their company in order for investors to mitigate their risk.
All of this means that entrepreneurs are going to have to be a lot more diligent. Agencies that offer grants, angels and venture firms are going to be much more selective. Here’s how entrepreneurs are going to have to react:
- Entrepreneurs will need to propose businesses that reach profitability and positive cash flow much sooner than ever before, because they are going to have less money to get their companies launched.
- Their business models will have to be focused and the path to revenue will have to be very convincing, supported by early customer feedback and rapid marketing and sales progress.
- The financial pro forma will get a lot more scrutiny, with emphasis on solid cost and expense planning and a clear eye on cash flow management.
- Angels will spend more time reviewing financial performance, so entrepreneurs will have to prepare for more scrutiny on how their money is being spent.
- For the limited amount of credit that will be available, the terms for borrowing money for new equipment are going to be more onerous, almost making it worse than spending valuable cash to purchase equipment outright. In the same manner, leasing will become tighter as well. Entrepreneurs are going to have to be even more inventive about finding used equipment or align themselves with partners to share in the use of equipment. Outsourcing the need to companies who have it will have to be a strong consideration.
- Entrepreneurs are going to have to establish strong credit, mainly through the credit worthiness of the company’s founders and of the company’s business partners who are willing to back them.
- For the many rapidly growing companies who need to partially finance their early success through AR financing, they will see even tighter restrictions on the quality of AR backing. Entrepreneurs will need to negotiate more attractive payment terms with suppliers in order to survive, or choose to grow slower, within the limits of their cash flow.
- Lines of credit, the vehicle by which short term cash demands for payroll and other payables are sometimes met, are going to be tougher to get, putting cash-squeezed companies at great risk. This too will force entrepreneurs to reconsider payment terms and other means of conserving cash will be even more important.
Entrepreneurs have to become strong business people. More and more will have to partner with seasoned business people in order to establish the management team that will not only develop the business idea but also bring it to a rapid business success. Strong management teams nurturing great ideas will undoubtedly pull us through this newest burst in our economy’s bubble.
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Angel Investors Want Disciplined Entrepreneurs
Bill Warner Friday, October 24, 2008
With credit tightening and the markets crumbling, entrepreneurs are facing a rapidly increasing competitive situation when vying for angel money. Angels are going to be a lot more selective and pick only the best opportunities, with best being defined to be:
- Quick to profitability
- Quick to positive cash flow
- Quick to exit
- Managed by an extraordinary team
So what is new about all that? Nothing really, but the pressure to be right and to really achieve it has gone up an order of magnitude. Entrepreneurs are going to have to make fewer mistakes, because there is not a lot of room for more financing to make up for them.
Angels are different than institutional investors. Institutional investors, like venture capital firms, have limited partners that provide the funds under certain financial performance terms. Angles are investing their own money. Angels care about their portfolios in many of the same ways as institutional investors, with one exception. Angels have a deep desire to see the entrepreneur become successful, and will be very much more forgiving, flexible and supportive during tough times. They, like the entrepreneurs, are the ultimate risk takers with a passion for the business surpassed only by the entrepreneurs themselves. But, like the institutional investors, they want to make money.
Raising angel financing is going to be much tougher, which will require entrepreneurs to present a very compelling business proposition that materially demonstrates a plan for rapid success:
- The description of the market will have to be well vetted. Paper analysis will not be good enough. Entrepreneurs will have to show that they have really tested their market entry with real customer feedback and survey results. If angels cannot see and talk to real and potential customers, the entrepreneur may be passed over.
- Entrepreneurs better know their competitors’ businesses about as well as they know their own. No more passes on competitive matrixes full of yes’s and no’s, and loosely spelled out SWOT analyses. Angels will need to see examples of competitive situations where you are winning as verified by customer feedback. It can’t be just the entrepreneur saying they have a winner. A buyer or potential buyer will have to say it.
- Marketing strategies are going to have to come alive with real contact information and lead generation productivity assumptions that have been verified by test marketing programs. The Excel spreadsheets will still be needed, but verification of the assumptions will be required.
- Sales targets have to be substantiated with an emerging pipeline of sales prospects, some of whom having been contacted and will verify their interest in the entrepreneur’s product or service. A verifiable list of additional sales targets have to be shown that demonstrate great confidence that the first year’s sales targets can be met. It is almost like the company has to have a rocket loaded with fuel and the entrepreneur has the match already lit to launch it.
- The financial forecast is going to have to be well thought out, demonstrating that the entrepreneur knows how to manage cash. Sold estimates for cost and expense, along with capital purchases, will have to be verifiable. The sales estimates have to correlate with the sales targets in the marketing and sales plans.
- The management team has to be very strong. First time entrepreneurs are going to have a tough time getting financing without having a seasoned executive at the helm. Angels will want a management team with a proven track record and relevant industry experience. These are the people that will mitigate a substantial part of the risk the angel is taking.
- Due diligence will become much more thorough. In addition to the usual process, much more scrutiny will be put into customer feedback, alliance relationships and credit worthiness of the company and its backers. Angels are going to have to have organized due diligence material, showing that the entrepreneur has a good handle on the business and what drives it.
If they haven’t done so already, entrepreneurs should be looking for assistance from seasoned business professionals to help them not only get ready for angel investors, but to help them run their companies efficiently and effectively. Entrepreneurs that form the right teams are the ones that are going to get the gold.
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CEO Coach - Orders For The New Economy
Bill Warner Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Credit is flowing slower than tree sap in a New Hampshire winter. The board of directors demand actions to respond to the economic mess and wants everything to happen immediately. Investors want to save cash and get to exit as quickly as possible. New investors are renegotiating their terms or backing away all together. Customers are starting to reprioritize purchases they had previously committed to. Wow, it’s a great day in the life of a CEO.
Let’s take a breath and not panic. Action certainly needs to be taken and it is very much the same thing that a CEO has to do in a turnaround situation:
- Reassess where you are with your revenue forecast. Talk to your most loyal customers and reassure them that you will be there for them and see where they are on future purchases. Take a hard look at new customer purchasing to verify that purchasing timeframes are still real. Adjust the revenue plan based on this brutally honest near-term view of customer purchases.
- Tighten the belt on the cost structure of your products and services. It’s time to take cost reduction actions that will provide a short-term yield. Cut personnel that are not essential to the manufacturing of products and to providing services.
- Take a hard look at expenses looking for ways to save cash on discretionary spending, payment terms to suppliers, lease payment terms, unnecessary personnel and even look at stabilization of salaries. If an expense item is not serving the main mission of the company, question it.
- The conservation of cash is what this is all about. More drastic actions could include the curtailment of development of future products and getting out of markets and discontinuing customers that are not profitable. Any action like this has to be done in the context of the company’s cash position and a judgment made as to whether there is enough cash in reserve to take the company through these hard times which could last through all of 2009.
- Rerun the income and expense report, cash flow statement and balance sheet forecasts with the operational changes you have made. Take a hard-nosed look at whether or not you will have enough cash to sustain your business. If not, more cost and expense is going to have to be removed from the business, which might mean you have to change the fundamental strategy of the business. You must get cost and expense in line with your realistic view of the revenue outlook.
You may be faced with the need to raise additional funds to get you through these tough times. Do not go to outside investors without having first done your homework. Bank loans are much harder to get, but if you have a realistic financial outlook and satisfactory past performance, you have a reasonable chance of getting help. If you have angel investors, you need to work closely with them and give them the same brutally honest view of the business and ask for their continuing help with additional funds. If you need to get institutional money (VC’s), you are faced with a tough negotiation.
This is going to be survival of the fittest, requiring much more discipline and focus than ever before. The necessary actions are well known. We have been through this before. The difference will be in the execution of what needs to be done.
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Angel Investors Deal With New Economy
Bill Warner Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Well, who isn’t angry about this economic mess we find ourselves in? Angel investors are positively angry. That is, they are just as angry as anyone else, but they also see positive action that is needed to pull through this.
I just returned from a three day conference of the Southeast Angels held in Savannah, GA, where 75 angels from 8 states were in attendance, representing 16 of the 25 Angel Capital Association member organizations in the southeast, including North Carolina angels from the Inception Micro Angel Fund, Piedmont Angel Network, Triangle Accredited Capital Forum, and the Wilminton Investor Network.
The conference was the best ever, with greatly increased attendance and some very interesting investment deals presented. But, the talk that penetrated every presentation and discussion was about what they are going to do concerning the failures in the financial markets.
Reasons for Anger
A lot of realities have just hit angels very hard, and it isn’t pretty. Most are not new, but have suddenly become very pressing:
- If they are invested in the public markets, they are seeing a tremendous decline in the value of their investments.
- Depending on what they are invested in, their losses could be astronomical especially if they are invested in financial institutions or the real estate market.
- Their own companies are feeling the impact of the slow movement of credit as they try to borrow money for business operations.
- Revenue growth for their portfolio companies is curtailed because customer buying is declining.
- The chances of getting another round of funding, either from angels or venture capital are greatly reduced as sources for these funds tighten up.
- Any portfolio company that is not cash flow positive now is in trouble.
The Angel’s Response
Overall, most angels are focusing on the fundamentals by instructing their companies to pay attention to what they can control. They are getting back to basics on sales generation, cost management, expense control, wise capital expenditures and reducing debt, as they batten down the hatches for the rough times ahead. Here’s what is going on:
- Angels are insisting that their companies have a realistic view of sales generation and revising their revenue, cost and expense forecasts accordingly. In other words, it’s now critical to be really real.
- If one of their portfolio companies has a chance to close an investment round now, they should do it without delay, even though valuations will probably be lower. The opportunity may be short lived.
- A portfolio company that is not cash flow positive now and hasn’t figured out how to make it so very quickly may face a rapid shut down. The likelihood of getting another chance to achieve positive cash flow is slim.
- They realize that venture capital is going to get squeezed by their limited partners and new funds are going to be tougher to find, and subsequent rounds, if any, will be smaller. That means they are going to have to hold more in reserve to provide further financing of the part of their portfolio that has a chance of surviving.
- The capital calls that are made to fuel additional investments are going to feel resistance as angel members have less money to invest.
- Valuations will be dampened and M&A transactions will be tougher to find. Angels want to see more aggressive strategies for exits and they will be willing to take a lower return to cash out earlier.
- Getting them interested in a new start-up investment is going to be extremely difficult. Entrepreneurs will have to really focus on putting together businesses that move rapidly to profitability and positive cash flow by showing how customer sales will occur reliably and that cost and expense infrastructures are appropriate.
- Angels will become much more prescriptive about financial management by digging into every aspect of marketing and sales plans, development operations, support infrastructures, capital expenditures and employee salaries. They are going to pay a lot of attention to how their money is spent.
- As occurred early this decade with VC’s, angels may move to more mature companies that represent lower risks. This will challenge entrepreneurs to form businesses that can rapidly reach profitability and positive cash flow.
- Angel groups will engage in increased syndication in order to aggregate enough money to finance new companies and to further share in the risk of these investments.
- Individual angels that are not experienced and are not members of an angel organization will get weeded out as their confidence gets shaken by the failure of their current investments.
As one of our most seasoned angel investors, Horace Stimson, recently told me, “I am always looking for the silver lining when times are tough. Capital does need to be put to work at some point and in productive ways.” Horace, like many angel investors, see opportunities for great deals at low prices as the demand for capital continues to be strong. Horace also sees a movement of private angels to joining angel organizations where they get the opportunity to share risk, learn from the judgment of others and diversify their investments. The Inception Micro Angel Fund and the Triangle Accredited Capital Forum have been growing recently as more and more angels take the opportunity to join angel groups.
As we have done over and over again, we will pull through this and respond to the new economic realities. After all, we are dealing with the beginnings of new businesses that fuel the majority of our economy.
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Angel Investors Are Feeling The Crunch
Bill Warner Sunday, October 12, 2008
Private angel investors as well as organized angel investor networks and funds are already feeling the impacts of the economic downturn that has just hit us. The average angel investor is well over 50 years old and is getting ready for retirement or is already retired. Their portfolio of investments is financing their lifestyle. With the volatility in the public markets, some are seeing their net worth and their cash flow from investments drop by 30% to 40%, and they haven’t seen the bottom yet.
The Impacts to Angel Investors
Angels are getting hit in many ways. Whether it is an impact to personal wealth and cash flow, ability to borrow money, downturn of business for their own companies, or ability to find new angel investor money for additional investment, the picture isn’t pretty.
- If they are invested in the public markets, they are seeing a tremendous decline in the value of their investments.
- Depending on what they are invested in, their losses could be astronomical especially if they are invested in financial institutions or the real estate market.
- Their own companies are feeling the impact of the slow movement of credit as they try to borrow money for business operations.
This all adds up to a need to conserve cash and reprioritize their investments to lower risk opportunities.
- Depending on their investment strategies, they may decide to sell the securities that have been irreparably harmed.
- They may conclude that the depression in the market is not over and that we are going to fall deeper into depression, and therefore put their money into very low risk investments.
- They may actually increase investments in areas that are fundamentally sound, getting great deals in this depressed market.
No matter how you look at it, their personal portfolio is in turmoil and is undergoing some massive reengineering.
The Impacts to Angel Investment
Like the VC’s, angels are encouraging their portfolio companies to conserve cash by getting even more focused on their core businesses and driving profitable revenue.
- If the company can make a deal for additional angel investment now, take it, no matter what the valuation. Angels realize that any portfolio company that is not already cash flow positive is in dire trouble. Raising money later is going to be very hard.
- They want to see more aggressive strategies for exits as they will be willing to take a lower return to cash out earlier. Entrepreneurs will have to focus on creating earlier exit opportunities and creating greater shareholder value faster.
- Many will become much more selective and even pull back on making any further investments until the economy stabilizes and they find out exactly where they stand, holding in reserve some funds to protect their current company investments.
- Getting them interested in a new investment in a start-up is going to be extremely difficult. Entrepreneurs will have to really focus on putting together their business plans to show not only an attractive opportunity but a substantial return more rapidly than ever before.
- As occurred early this decade with VC’s, angels may move to more mature companies that represent lower risks. This will challenge entrepreneurs to form businesses that can reach profitability and positive cash flow earlier.
Angels are angry right now. Well, actually, who isn’t angry? I wish our presidential candidates were angrier though. We all have been let down by every agency that is supposed to protect us as well as businesses who lost all common sense. In less than ten years, we burst another bubble. We need a new administration and congress that will provide appropriate oversight and make the changes necessary to continue a free market economy without government influence for purposes of social engineering.
As we have done over and over again, we will pull through this and respond to the new economic realities. After all, we are dealing with the beginnings of new businesses that fuel the majority of our economy.
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Angel Investors and Entrepreneurs - Living a Bad Dream
Bill Warner Monday, October 06, 2008
Watching the economic news unfold over the last week was like living a bad dream. Like most dreams, it was a slow moving series of events that brought us closer and closer to economic disaster as the flow of credit became more and more constipated.
Financial institutions are failing, including our own Wachovia Bank, coming off the failures of Lehmann Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others. The administration put guns to our heads telling taxpayers that they had to pay $700B or else the world as we know it would end. Congress denied all accountability and served up some more pork to fix the problem, moving us closer to the abyss of socialism. McCain gave a head fake of leadership, while Obama again ducked and weaved his way to looking like the almighty savior with a few good speeches.
So, there in that bad dream stand angel investors, whose portfolios of investments are being crushed by the resulting market downturn. But, the dream is not over. We still have not gotten a complete awakening of what is going on and what else is going to drop on our heads. What does this mean for angel investors and the entrepreneurs that need them?
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Angel Investing Brought To Earth
Bill Warner Sunday, October 05, 2008
A standing room only crowd participated in a recent Angel Connection Event where angel investors, entrepreneurs and other business professionals gathered to learn what angel investing is all about as well as to meet new business associates.
Co-sponsored by WRAL Local Tech Wire and the Triangle Accredited Capital Forum, this is the first Angel Connection event.
“We are thrilled with the interest shown in last night’s event and the exciting information provided about the world of angel investing,” said Rick Smith, General Manager and Editor of WRAL Local Tech Wire.
“This event more than exceeded our expectations. We all got the opportunity to get some valuable information about angel investing that we don’t normally see,” said Bill Warner, Chairman of the Triangle Accredited Capital Forum.
Featured speaker
This inaugural event featured Catherine Mott, CEO and founder of BlueTree Capital Group and BlueTree Allied Angels of Pittsburg, PA, and board member of the Angel Capital Association.
Catherine delivered a comprehensive perspective of the angel investing industry, highlighting some very important trends:
- Of the 500,000 start-up companies in the US each year, 40% will be financed by friends and family, 10% by angel organizations and less than 1% by venture capital firms.
- Formal angel investor organizations are rapidly growing from nearly 100 in 1999 to over 250 today, 165 of them are members of the Angel Capital Association, representing over 6,800 angels, an average of over 40 angels per organization.
- However, it is estimated that there are between 200,000 to 500,000 active angels throughout the US who have invested over $26B in 2007, growing from $15B in 2002.
- Angel organizations bring much more power and understanding to the investing process via their pooled deal flow, business experience, industry knowledge, due diligence and investment strength.
- The average amount invested per round by each investor group has increased 10% to $266K in 2007, the vast majority of which is going into seed or early stage companies.
- Medical devices and software lead the way as the most popular industry for angels, followed closely by business products and services, industrial/energy, IT services and biotechnology.
- Angel organizations are quite territorial, wanting to invest locally or regionally. However, with the growth of syndication between angel organizations, their reach is widening.
Profile of an angel
Catherine gave a quantitative profile of what a typical angel is. So when you are searching for angels, here is what they look like:
- Nine years of investing experience
- Investing in 10 companies
- Has had 2 exits
- 14.5 years of experience as an entrepreneur
- Has founded 2.7 ventures
- 57 years old
- 10% percent of wealth in angel investing
- Has a master’s degree
“Survey says”
Catherine shared the results of a recent survey by the Kauffman Foundation that sheds some light on how angel investing is performing:
- Overall, angels are achieving a 2.6X return on their investment over a 3.5 year period for an IRR of 27%.
- Over 50% of angel investments have less than a 1X return on investment, with 35% being dead losses.
- 34% of their investments have a 1 to 5X return, while the remainder is greater than 5X.
- Spending considerable time in due diligence directly correlates to investment success. Low due diligence time has led to a 1.1X return in 3.4 years, while high due diligence time has led to a 5.9X return in 4.1 years.
- Having angels with relevant industry experience also correlates to investment success, indicated by 1.3X returns in 3.6 years with no industry experience and 3.7X returns in 4.0 years with considerable industry experience.
- Angel participation as advisors and board members as well as ongoing operational and financial monitoring helps increase the chances of success. Those that were involved 1 to 2 times per year achieved 1.3X returns in 3.6 years, while those involved 1 to 2 times per month achieved 3.7X returns in 4.0 years.
- Interestingly enough, those investments that did not require a follow-on investment from the same angel organization got better returns than those that did; 3.6X returns versus 1.4X returns respectively.
Future trends
Catherine predicted that the world of angels is going to have more important changes in the future:
- There will be a rapid increase in university-connected angel groups
- Green/clean-tech company investments are emerging rapidly
- Women angel groups will be forming
- Co-investment regionally, US-wide and cross-border will increase
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Investor Presentations - The Short Story
Bill Warner Sunday, April 06, 2008
I just got through working with a team of business people that are coaching some of the entrepreneurs who are trying to get ready to make their investor presentations at an upcoming venture conference. It reminds me how important it is to be able to get your story across in just ten minutes and in a way that is compelling and complete.
Here’s a reminder of what you have to talk about in the ten minutes. You need to deliver twelve important messages:
- The problem – Explain that you are solving a very important industry problem and why it is a problem that needs to be solved.
- The solution – Show that you have a unique and compelling solution to the problem that nobody else has.
- Market definition – Define the size and growth of the market segment that you will focus on and that you know all about the buyer of your product or service.
- Competition – Summarize your understanding of the competitive landscape and that you know your differentiation and how to beat them all.
- Product and service definition – Describe the most important features of your product or service and the quantifiable benefits they bring to your buyer.
- Barriers to entry – Show how difficult it will be for anyone else to replicate what you are doing and that you are protected from the copying and theft of what you have innovated.
- Value proposition – Summarize the major customer value points that make your product a “must have” for the buyer.
- Marketing plan – Demonstrate that you know how to create market awareness and generate sufficient leads for sales to achieve their sales forecast.
- Sales plan – Explain the sales channels that you will actually use to achieve sales results and make sure that it links to the revenue in the financial forecast.
- Management team – Describe who the top management team and explain why they are the best to lead the company through it’s start up phase.
- Financial forecast – Show the five year forecast of revenue, profit and cash and highlight when you will be profitable and cash flow positive.
- Investor highlights – Describe the financing strategy of the company and how much money you need, along with what the investor gets for the investment, the use of funds and the potential exit strategy.
You can get this across in ten minutes, but your goal is to generate tremendous interest by the investors so that they want to meet with you and learn much more about your company. In other words, this presentation is a tool to “get a meeting” with the investors.
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Southeast Angel Investors Huddle Up
Bill Warner Sunday, March 30, 2008
I had the pleasure of attending a meeting of the Southeast members of the Angel Capital Association in Greensboro last week. We saw some very good start up company presenations and spent some time sharing war stories. More importantly was the clear interest in being able to more quickly and efficiently share investment opportunities amongst the member organizatons. Most angel organizations cannot provide all the financing that is needed for a start up company themselves. They often need to find other investors to share in the deal in order to come up with all of what is needed. This form of syndication is gaining interest and momentum not only in the Southeast, but across the country. There still is a lot to do to work out the details of how this works, but many angel organizations have already engaged others to make simultaneous investments in start ups.
This is good news for entrepreneurs, but a dual edged sword. When an entrepreneur presents to one of the angel organizations in the Southeast, most of the others will know about it very quickly. That means that entrepreneurs have to be well prepared to make their first presentation. The result is that, if it goes well, everyone will know it. If it goes badly, everyone will know it too. The message to entrepreneurs is, “be well prepared before you make your first presentation.”
We saw some very encouraging news about the outlook for angel investing for 2008. It looks like most angel organizations will be able to at least sustain their level of investing in 2007, despite the difficulties that are emerging in the economy. So it is still full speed ahead for entrepreneurs who need angel investors. Contact the Triangle Accredited Capital Forum for guidance.
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Know the Buyer’s Food Chain
Bill Warner Saturday, March 22, 2008
Knowing that you have, or will have, a winning product does not give you time to rest. You have to grease the skids by making your buyers aware that you have a product that solves an important problem that they have. Founded upon your in-depth understanding of your buyers, you need to structure the appropriate marketing campaigns that raise buyer awareness of the product’s value and availability. This can be mind numbing work, but is very necessary in order to not have surprises that could stop your business later. Many hours spent on understanding the distribution channel can save you from a whole lot of costly mistakes later when you are trying to get the revenue for your hard work.
Know How the Buyer Buys
Almost always, it is not obvious how the buyer actually buys. Knowing this is the subject of millions of dollars that some companies spend in order to introduce products to the consumer retail industries. Advertising agencies and research firms get rich figuring this stuff out. The best way, and a lot cheaper, is to ask them yourself. Approach representative examples of your buyers and ask them how they purchase products in your market segment. Answer these questions:
- Who do they buy from
- Where do they learn about new products
- What are the payment requirements
- What incentives are offered
- What are the terms and conditions for the purchase
- Is credit required
- What are the price ranges
- How is the delivered
