We all know that the IPO market for venture-backed companies has pretty much disappeared, substantially destroying their business model that requires high value exits via an IPO. Dixon Doll, in his interview with the Wall Street Journal gives us an update on the reshaping of the venture capital industry. Doll is a seasoned business consultant, a leading venture capitalist and the outgoing Chairman of the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).
The NVCA’s Four-Pillar Plan is targeted at restoring the venture-backed IPO market, and it takes unprecedented cooperation between the private sector and the government’s taxation and regulatory policies. Given the slap that the venture capital world just took in the SBIR renewal bill, that cooperation is not evident.
The NVCA’s direction is to convince venture capital firms to modify their financial models and business practices to focus on small-cap IPO’s, moving away from blockbuster winners. Another bubble is bursting. This will require substantial reshaping of the way venture capital firms structure their deals and the transition will take five to seven years to complete. But, given the state of the IPO market, this makes sense.
This means that venture capital firms will have to go after more deals, with less money per deal, driving for quicker exits, and culminating in smaller IPO’s. This opens up the venture-backed IPO market to a whole new set of investment banking firms that will be able to service this opportunity. It won’t be just the big firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Doll points out that this is going to be a painful transition. Some venture firms won’t make it. It will require a massive education initiative to explain how this can work. This education will have to include entrepreneurs, venture capital firms and investments banks who currently don’t view that they have an IPO market available to them.
There is considerable skepticism throughout the industry. Even if the NVCA pulls off this first pillar, the government regulatory and taxation policies will represent another giant hurdle to jump over. Doll has always been a positive and aggressive thinker. If anyone can make this change happen, he can.
Bill Warner is the Managing Partner of Paladin and Associates, a business consulting firm in the Research Triangle Park area of central North Carolina, and is the Chairman of the Triangle Accredited Capital Forum, an angel investor network with over one hundred members throughout the southeast.